overconfidence

“Go big or go home.” “No risk, no gain.” Google quotations about the benefits of taking risks and you’ll find a boatload. But what’s the downside?

…overconfidence frequently brings rewards, as long as spoils of conflict are sufficiently large compared with the costs of competing for them. In contrast, people with unbiased, accurate perceptions usually fare worse.

The implications are that, over a long period of time the evolutionary principal of natural selection is likely to have favored a bias towards overconfidence. Therefore people with the mentality of someone like boxer Mohammad Ali would have left more descendents than those with the mindset of film maker Woody Allen.
The evolutionary model also showed that overconfidence becomes greatest in the face of high levels of uncertainty and risk. When we face unfamiliar enemies or new technologies, overconfidence becomes an even better strategy.

Dr Dominic Johnson, reader in Politics and International Relations at the University: ‘The model shows that overconfidence can plausibly evolve in wide range of environments, as well as the situations in which it will fail. The question now is how to channel human overconfidence so we can exploit its benefits while avoiding occasional disasters.’ –Science Daily

Writing Prompt: Write a scene where the character takes a big risk with two different outcomes – one where the risk pays off and one where the risk leads to massive failure.

Journaling Prompt: Write about a time when you took a big risk.

Art Prompt: Overconfidence

Nonfiction / Speechwriting Prompt: Tell a humorous story of how overconfidence got you into trouble.

Photo Credit: John C Bullas BSc MSc PhD MCIHT MIAT on Flickr

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

CommentLuv badge